A Stakeholder-Engaged Approach to Anticipating Forest Disturbance Impacts in the Colorado River Basin under Climate Change

Accelerated climate change and forest disturbances (e.g., wildfire, mortality, thinning) are anticipated to significantly impact water resources in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), need for actionable information from hydrologic research is growing rapidly. We designed a stakeholder engagement modeling process assess of these changes on CRB hydrology. used variable infiltration capacity model simulate alternative futures (a top-down structure) with scenarios incremental bottom-up assessment). Forcings were derived outputs that represent warm wet (warm/wet) hot dry (hot/dry) future bookends. During process, we incorporated feedback managers capture their perspectives our create decision-relevant analyses. Results showed improved streamflow conditions permanent by end 21st century (CRB mean annual up 12% larger than without disturbance) due smaller snowpack reductions evapotranspiration losses. Larger reversed warming-driven declines supply efficiency (average runoff baseflow, per unit precipitation) only under warm/wet climate. Forest did not induce recovery hot/dry overriding effect increasing water-limited conditions.